Hugging the Tar Baby

The endless punditry following the president’s surprise visit to Baghdad seemed to focus on two parallel tracks. Most of the commentary concerned either the impact it would have on the standing and legitimacy of Iraq’s new government or the affect it may or may not have on Bush’s poll numbers here at home.

On Track #1:
Bush’s war summit switch-a-roo is designed to, and I think, will have a solidifying effect on Prime Minister al-Maliki’s fledgling cabinet. There is a lot of work yet to be done- the Constitution needs to be amended to guarantee security and a fair share of oil revenues for the Sunni population, militias of all stripes need to be carrot & stick-ed off the streets and into the military proper, and the insurgency has to be vanquished, to name just a few of the difficult matters to be resolved.

What has to be remembered about the insurgency is that it is comprised of two different kinds of fighter. The minority is a hardcore of zealots who will die in any way possible for the cause. There is no reasoning with these types. They have to be killed or run out of country.

But like all insurgencies the majority of participants are a bit more moderate. Many are simply young idealists caught up in an ‘important’ movement. The moderates can be peeled from the hardcore when a legitimate governing body fills the chaotic vacuum of anarchy. Once the teams are established, most will want to side with an obvious winner.

Bush said a lot of things today to the cabinet, press and soldiers. But most important was what was implied, rather than spoken. Namely: “I’m here… where is Zarqawi?” The more this government looks like a winner, the more moderates will melt back into civilian life, leaving the hardcore easier to find and root out.

On Track #2
The presidency is always a political animal and this chief executive is looking for ways to rebound in the polls and head into November’s mid-term elections with a full head of steam. The Republicans have had some good days recently- A full cabinet in Iraq, a dead Zarqawi, an upgrade at the post of White House spokesperson, and a much relieved Karl Rove. All turns of fortune that the Prez hopes, and probably will, ride to higher poll numbers in the coming weeks.

But:
The thing the pundits are missing, it seems to me, is the real motivation for the trip to the Green Zone. By flying into the teeth of what is considered his party’s largest albatross, the prolonged conflict in Iraq- The president is sending a signal, first and foremost, to the members of his own party in Congress. The politicos at the White House understand that many of their brethren on the Hill are looking to leave them in the cold, distancing themselves from the Iraq conflict in order to dodge campaign bullets back home. They also know that this is a surefire way to lose the majority. The ruling party only has a chance to maintain their ranks by holding hands and rallying together.

By continuing to put his hands around Iraq in very public ways he has, to use Tony Snow’s less than fortunate wording, hugged the Tar Baby. Now he’s stuck to it- and whether they like it or not, they are as well. Soon, the thinking goes, they’ll realize they might as well jump in with both feet and make the best out of it.

The president and his advisors are hoping all those extra helping hands will be the final bit of energy necessary to keep the congress, and perhaps, finally win the war in Iraq.