Turning Tide?

Even a cursory reading of history makes it obvious that war is never a static situation. The news is rarely all good or all bad, but usually a mix of events that lean one way or another until a breaking point is reached.

Today’s news that U.S. forces in collaboration with intelligence sources finally brought rough justice to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the al Qaeda leader in Iraq, cannot be trusted as the full picture any more than yesterday’s news. The reality of the situation is that the true state of things, has been, and still is taking place outside the frame and beyond the view of daily coverage.

Just as a bad day full of car bombings and bloodied marketplaces is not a reliable indicator of the success or failure of this mission. Neither can a good day brimming with news of villains vanquished be relied upon solely for a clear view of the battlefield. It is however, a good, and I think, very significant day.

The fight against terrorism looks different than the military struggles of the past. But ultimately, the same patterns of warfare are emerging that have defined every other clash of blood and ideology.

Any war is comprised of a large campaign made up of many smaller campaigns. It is the winning of these smaller, less noticed battles that eventually lead to peace on the victor’s terms. While the individual battles of the past have been clearly defined by the taking or losing of territory, this fight in Iraq, unlike most, is more political than geographic.

Up to now this paradigm has favored the enemy since the results of suicide belts and I.E.D.’s are more obvious, especially to the media, than the consistent wearing down of Al Qaeda (in or out of Iraq) by way of disinformation, night raids that confiscate valuable computer hard drives, the bribing of tribal leaders, and all of the other things that result from superior battlefield intelligence.

Nearly every winning military campaign in the history of the United States has been plagued with bad news and losses until the tide is suddenly turned and we march to victory. Those ultimate victories in turn are usually achieved on the heels of many little victories (or battles) that build to an overwhelming crescendo. Tides don’t suddenly turn by themselves. In fact, there is nothing sudden about it. They are moved and shaped by the force of energy that’s building unseen, down below the wake.

My sense is that the termination of Al-Zarqawi will be a turning point, not because of the death-mask photo that brings joy to our hearts- but as a result of the hundreds of quiet victories by the good guys that have made that picture possible.

I expect that we’ll see many dominoes tumble in the coming weeks and months because a network, terror or otherwise, is only as strong as its weakest link. It would appear that our little victories beneath the waves are now cresting and may soon crash onto the shoreline altogether.

Hell, we might even be able to vacation on the beach before too long.

Alright-
Enough of the analogy and metaphor… I’m glad this guy is dead.